Role of External State and Non-State Actors — Predicted 2026

AI-Predicted Question Angles for UPSC 2026

Based on trend analysis, current affairs, and recurring themes in Role of External State and Non-State Actors.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deepfakes in External Information Warfare

High

The rapid advancement of AI and deepfake technology presents a new frontier for information warfare. External state and non-state actors can leverage these tools to create highly convincing disinformation campaigns, manipulate public opinion, and exacerbate communal tensions. This aligns with the 'cognitive dimension' of Vyyuha's Threat Spectrum and the evolving nature of hybrid warfare. UPSC is likely to test understanding of emerging technologies and their security implications, especially given recent global events and discussions around AI regulation.

Role of Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) as Quasi-Non-State Actors

Medium

While not traditional non-state actors like terror groups, PMSCs can act as proxies for state interests or operate independently, potentially engaging in activities that destabilize regions or provide deniable support to various factions. Their increasing global presence and involvement in conflicts could lead to questions about their regulation, accountability, and their indirect impact on India's security environment, particularly in neighboring regions or maritime domains. This represents a nuanced understanding of 'non-state' influence.

India's 'Whole-of-Government' Approach to Countering External Threats: Successes and Challenges

High

UPSC often asks about the effectiveness of governance and policy implementation. A 'whole-of-government' approach emphasizes integrated efforts across various ministries, agencies, and levels of government. This angle would allow for a comprehensive discussion of India's institutional responses, coordination mechanisms [VY:SEC-07], legal frameworks, and diplomatic efforts, while also critically examining the challenges in achieving seamless synergy against complex external threats. It tests both factual knowledge and analytical ability to evaluate policy.