ISIS and Global Jihad — Predicted 2026

AI-Predicted Question Angles for UPSC 2026

Based on trend analysis, current affairs, and recurring themes in ISIS and Global Jihad.

Impact of Geopolitical Shifts on ISIS Resurgence

High

The ongoing conflicts (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza) and shifting global priorities can divert attention and resources from counter-terrorism efforts against ISIS. This creates power vacuums and opportunities for the group to regroup and expand, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Africa. UPSC often tests the ability to connect global events to specific security challenges. Questions could explore how a reduced international focus on Syria/Iraq or the Sahel might enable ISIS to strengthen its insurgency or how regional instability fuels its affiliates. This angle requires understanding both international relations and internal security dynamics.

Effectiveness of Deradicalization and Counter-Narrative Programs Against ISIS Ideology

Medium to High

While military action dismantled ISIS's physical caliphate, its ideology persists. UPSC is increasingly interested in comprehensive solutions beyond kinetic operations. Questions could assess the success and failures of various deradicalization and counter-narrative programs, both globally and in India, in combating ISIS's ideological appeal. This angle delves into the 'soft power' aspects of counter-terrorism, requiring knowledge of social psychology, community engagement, and policy initiatives. (For ISIS's impact on regional security dynamics, see Middle East geopolitics at [VY:IR-02-04-01])

The Role of Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies in ISIS Propaganda and Counter-Terrorism

Medium

ISIS has historically been adept at using technology for propaganda and recruitment. As AI and other emerging technologies (e.g., deepfakes, advanced encryption) become more accessible, ISIS could potentially leverage them for more sophisticated disinformation campaigns, recruitment, and operational security. Conversely, counter-terrorism agencies are also using AI for intelligence gathering and content moderation. UPSC might explore this dual-use aspect, asking how technology shapes both the threat and the response. This requires an understanding of cyber security and the ethical implications of technology in conflict. (For understanding the broader landscape of international terrorism, explore [VY:SEC-02-03] on International Terror Organizations)